Activision Q4 2010 Earnings Call: The Important Stuff

by Dan on February 9, 2011

Well, that’s what I get for expecting a boring investor update. All kinds of info came out in today’s conference call — some good, some bad, and some that are sure to be slightly mangled by the rumor mill. You can read the full transcript yourself, but if that’s a bit daunting, here are the facts that matter if you’re a gamer:

What Was Said: First Strike DLC will come out on PlayStation 3 on March 3.
My Take: Huzzah! Glad there’s a firm date. PC gamers, look for it “later in the quarter.” As I hear more info, I’ll report back.

What Was Said: Call of Duty is coming to China with a free-to-play microtransaction business model (but not this year).
My Take: That’s all that was said; no details. But microtransaction games — like, fantasy MMOs where it’s free to enter the dungeon, but you can buy bits of armor and weapons if you want to upgrade quickly — are very common in China and South Korea, so this sounds like a case of making a game to fit the audience. If you’re a gamer in those territories, this news probably isn’t too surprising, and if you’re not a gamer in those territories, it doesn’t affect you, as you won’t be playing it. This is being built for China, where games like Call of Duty: Black Ops are not available for sale in stores. You get that, they get this.

What Was Said: A new studio, Beachhead, is being formed to work on online COD stuff.
My Take: Beachhead is, according to Bobby Kotick, “focused solely on the development of an innovative new digital platform and social services for our Call of Duty community.”  Eric Hirshberg says the platform has been in development for over a year and features “in-game integration.” Remember, Activision says it will “never, ever charge for the multiplayer” of COD games, and they really can’t go back on that — this will have to be something different. And just from that tease, it sounds like it is.

What Was Said: Something big will be announced at Toy Fair.
My Take: Eric Hirshberg spoke of “an all-new gaming universe that brings together the worlds of toys, videogames and online play in a way that I believe to be unprecedented.” It’s expected to launch late this year, and an announcement is coming at Toy Fair…which is a few days from now, so we won’t have to wait long. [Update: He was talking about Skylanders.]

What Was Said: Someone dropped the name “Family Guy.”
My Take: When talking about licensed franchises like Transformers, X-Men, and Cabela’s, Activision COO Thomas Tippl mentioned the phrase “Family Guy” among them. So…guess we’ll hear about that soon? I’ll poke around.

What Was Said: True Crime: Hong Kong is cancelled.
My Take: After the teases and glimpses we got last year, I was looking forward to seeing how this game would turn out. But it Activision says it’s a quality issue. “To be blunt,” said Activision Publishing CEO Eric Hirshberg, “it just wasn’t going to be good enough.” As a fan of quality games, I support this; if you don’t want to win, why enter the race? The developers, United Front Games, are independent (they did ModNation Racers for PS3 last year) and I’m interested to see what they do next.

What Was Said: The Guitar Hero business unit is going away.
My Take: When something is very successful, it’s not unusual to see companies restructure to cater to that success. GH was super hot for a while, so they created a special business unit for GH games. Now it’s cooled off, so there isn’t much need for a dedicated arm of the business to cater to it — time to reshuffle again. That does not mean Guitar Hero is dead, as some people have said, but it is taking at least 2011 off, and quite possibly more time. GH will remain an Activision franchise and the existing titles will still be supported [Update: I'd reported that DLC was still in development, but I was wrong. DLC development has been stopped too -- nothing past February. The source of my confusion is here.]. Mostly, the business unit thing is more an internal hierarchy/flowchart thing and won’t have a direct impact on gamers.

What Was Said: Headcount is going down.
My Take: That’s the nice way to say “there are layoffs.”  Eric Hirshberg and Thomas Tippl said it’s due to the restructuring and it impacts about 7% of the company’s global workforce, or around 500 people. I work with some of the folks who are leaving and I’m very unhappy about it.  It’s always unfortunate when people lose their jobs and, of course, it’s never done lightly — but it’s also worth noting that you rarely hear anything when people are hired back on. Thomas Tippl noted that they are also hiring up in other areas, so it might actually even out by the end of the year. If that happens, it’s not likely going to be reported.

That’s basically all the important stuff that I heard and all the details I was able to gather. Again, now that there is a transcript of the call online, you can read the original for yourself. If you have questions, I have my notes and a recording of the call, so I’ll try to answer below.

  • http://www.bishopsgamingworld.com Bishop

    I also heard about Wipeout, the ABC show, mentioned somewhere as well. Curious to know if the new game will only be released on the Wii and DS like the first one, or if it could possibly have a 360 version with Kinect support.

    Glad to see Guitar Hero take a break. Although Warriors of Rock was a good, taking a year off is definitely needed. Tony Hawk may need Activision to remaster the Underground and Pro Skater games in HD to get people back interested in the series.

  • http://twitter.com/LikChan Lik Chan

    Good stuff, thanks for the summary.

  • http://twitter.com/DonAngelCafe Donald Coffie

    Thank you for the information summary.
    I haven’t gotten Guitar Hero WoR yet. With me having some of the older instruments on Wii, and not as much time lately as I used to, I haven’t been able to decide yet whether to get the full band kit or just the game disc, as I didn’t want the next game to come out a few months later with new stuff again.

    I am also a HUGE Diablo fan, and heard elsewhere that it was mentioned, in short, that they aren’t expecting Diablo III this year? What do you think?

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    I’m not sure. I know that the Wii title was a big hit — like, crazy numbers that would probably surprise a lot of hardcore gamers. So if they feel the audience would be there, it’s reasonable to think they might bring it over. But nothing like that was suggested — I think it was Tippl who simply noted the franchise in the list.

    I’m okay with GH taking a break too. Go, get rested, come back whenever it feels right.

  • http://twitter.com/Spieg89 John Spiegelberg

    I am sorry to hear about all of the various layoffs. I really hope they can find jobs. I have to say Dan I am very interested in this Call of Duty thing. And I also have to say as an avid music/rhythm game fan, I am sorry to hear about the Guitar Hero news. I would have really liked to pick up Warriors of Rock, but I couldn’t due to my unemployment issues. But I do want to pick it up in the near future. Thanks for the info. Keep on the good work Dan.

  • Steve

    It really just sounds like a regular business cycle. Somethings have gone down ,like GH, others are going up, like CoD. Besides other music games are out trying lots of new things it may be best for Guitar Hero to take an extra year or two to work up new things for their games.

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    That is the reality. But, you know…big changes and short memories often make things sound catastrophic when they’re really just normal business. And I think GH needs a rest, and I’d be happy to see it take as long as it needs, then come back whenever the time feels right.

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    It sounded like they wouldn’t commit one way or the other to Diablo III — when directly asked, they wouldn’t offer a completion percentage. So where it is in development is anybody’s guess; it could be 2011, but I’m not expecting it from the way they were talking around, instead of about, it. :)

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    You bring up a great point — everybody can’t get every new game right away, but they are still out there and still for sale. If you find yourself itching to play a new music game but you don’t have them all in your collection, it’s there for when you’re ready.

  • Natehubes

    Was there anything about DJ Hero’s developer being shut down or the game franchise ending because I thought I read about that on Gameinformer. But great way to sum up the earnings call Dan.

  • http://twitter.com/DonAngelCafe Donald Coffie

    Ah that’s a bummer. Good thing there’s plenty of games to play in the meantime.
    Thank for the info and reply! :D

  • http://twitter.com/VeRKK Omri Kalmi

    Wow, I cannot believe True Crime: Hong Kong is cancelled, sure it may have been in a “bad state”, but at this point of development, they could (unless it was really an unplayable game) release it no matter what. God damn, I loved the True Crime series, I was really waiting for this game.

  • http://twitter.com/_SchmoGarcia Joe Garcia

    I understand the GH move, but canning True Crime just baffles me. Recent previews sounded positive and the game was just months away from release. Why not just stick with it? As a fan of the first game, I was totally looking forward to Hong Kong, as were other True Crime fans I talked to. This talk about “not being good enough” just rings hollow to me, especially as they seem to be putting CoD on the same path that GH took with oversaturation — FIVE studios working on the franchise?

    I dunno. Maybe I just need to chew on this a bit more. =/

  • http://twitter.com/_SchmoGarcia Joe Garcia

    I understand the GH move, but canning True Crime just baffles me. Recent previews sounded positive and the game was just months away from release. Why not just stick with it? As a fan of the first game, I was totally looking forward to Hong Kong, as were other True Crime fans I talked to. This talk about “not being good enough” just rings hollow to me, especially as they seem to be putting CoD on the same path that GH took with oversaturation — FIVE studios working on the franchise?

    I dunno. Maybe I just need to chew on this a bit more. =/

  • Anonymous

    “It’s always unfortunate when people lose their jobs and, of course, it’s never done lightly…”

    I guess I’m just a whole lot more cynical than you. The bean counters figure the company isn’t making (enough, in many cases) money and the employees are just numbers to them. Instead of laying off the rank and file, how about deep cuts in executive compensation (y’know, the guys who made the decisions that led to the current state of affairs). And no, I’m not a Bobby Kotick hater, I’m a greedy executive hater.

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    Spiral, I’m not going to name names, but some high ranking executives left the company today as well. Do not assume that it was all “rank and file.”

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    Would “not good enough” ring true if the game came out and was disappointing?

    I saw the game early in development and did not see the build that the press saw for the recent previews. But if the CEO says “This just isn’t good enough to cut it,” why doubt that? It’s only worth doubting when an inferior game is touted as “the greatest thing ever.”

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    I’m sorry that you were looking forward to it, but if you know your game is not going to cut it, and you cancel it, I think that’s the responsible thing to do. “At this point in development” is fuzzy and makes assumptions about its state — and I don’t know its insurmountable issues any more than you do.

    I used to chase down “Vapor Trails” — remnants of games that were announced and shown in various forms that got canceled. And the top reason in all those cases was “it just wasn’t good enough.”

    If you’re disappointed now, think of how disappointed you might be after waiting all that time for something that didn’t deliver.

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    Nothing was mentioned on the call about FreeStyleGames being closed, but I’m going to ask around and see how the closing of the biz unit affects them.

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    Nothing was mentioned on the call about FreeStyleGames being closed, but I’m going to ask around and see how the closing of the biz unit affects them.

  • http://twitter.com/Devon_OO7 Devon Mond

    The games industry seems to have a strange balance: hardcore CoD/Halo shooter fans on one side, casual, arm flailing Wii fans on the other. The middle ground is where Core games go to bargain bins and downloadable games benefit.

  • CubicleZombie

    Sounds like today was a rough day all around.
    I like all the love I been seeing on twitter for the gh franchise today. I am sure it’ll be back. Well, thats done – heres to waiting out for PAX East!

  • Anonymous

    This has saddened me. Guitar Hero is what made me super interested in music. I picked up bass guitar because of Guitar Hero. I never would have thought that the music game genre would decline like it has. I guess I can just hope interest begins to increase (unlikely though).
    Oh, and great job Dan with this article. Kotaku isn’t to great with the exacts.

  • Jkooistra2004

    @spiralgrey: it’s the same everywhere. Greedy managers are the true source of all business failings.

    True crime cancelled. A quality issue? Well, lack of quality never stopped Activision to release a beta as a finished products for the PC community. (CoD:BO, MW2)

  • Starscream 1017

    any info on the transformers games? the movie one & war for cybertron 2??

  • http://twitter.com/zigs00 Edd

    I feel like that’s the general trajectory for music game sales these days. They don’t explode in the first week, but steadily increase over months.

    I remember you saying the same happened in 2009 with DJ Hero – sales weren’t strong in the first week, so it was condemned as a failure, but by the end of the year it had sold over a million copies. Same thing has happened to Warriors of Rock this year (and RB3 and Dance Central too).

  • http://twitter.com/_SchmoGarcia Joe Garcia

    It sounds like they canned True Crime because they thought it would be mediocre, but plenty of “mediocre” games have seen success — just look at Kane & Lynch.

    I mean, it’s unlikely that the game would overtake GTA from either a sales or quality standpoint; those guys pretty much own that corner of the market. This whole thing just seems so short-sighted to me — canning projects that may or may not have succeeded while putting all of their eggs in the CoD-and-licensed-games basket. Shouldn’t those successes allow you to take chances with stuff like True Crime?

  • Pete from Hoboken

    I’d also be really interested to find out the fate of DJ Hero. I’d rather have DJ Hero 3 than ten more Call of Duty installments.

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    This is a trap.

    “These other games were not high quality enough.”
    “Okay, we’ll take a closer look at quality. This one isn’t good enough. We won’t bring it out.”
    “THAT’S NOT FAIR!”

    Sorry, but you can’t criticize someone up for showing restraint after criticizing them for not showing restraint.

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    Not yet, but I know you’re excited. :) Thomas mentioned Transformers as a current license so I hope we hear something soon.

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    I don’t know if you listened to the call or read the transcript, but that is EXACTLY what Eric Hirschberg said. And I think you’re both right.

    “Everyone of the top 10 titles this year was based on established franchises and, with the exception of one, all had online functionality. These 10 titles generated the vast majority of the entire industry’s profits. Second, sales of mid-tier titles are being squeezed out, and these can come with some fairly high development and marketing costs. Third, on the other end of the spectrum from the top 10, smaller titles made for passionate audiences with right-sized development budgets, like our Cabela’s franchise, are also able to succeed.”

    Transcript here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/251909-activision-blizzard-s-ceo-discusses-q4-2010-results-earnings-call-transcript

  • Jkooistra2004

    I’ll believe when I see it. So far Activision has let the PC community down time and time again. Maybe they’ve turned over a new leaf. But forgive my scepticism.

  • Jkooistra2004

    I’ll believe when I see it. So far Activision has let the PC community down time and time again. Maybe they’ve turned over a new leaf. But forgive my scepticism.

  • Khonshu

    Fair enough. I was basing my comment more on 25 years experience in the work force where seldom does a layoff include anyone whose job title starts with C and ends with O. And even when it does those people usually end up with a seven or eight figure golden parachute.

  • Anonymous

    Oops messed up my login

  • Amak11

    It saddens me that Guitar Hero actually is “dead”. Perhaps they should sell the IP to someone like Take-two or Ubisoft or maybe Sony (they have a label just sayin).

    Just an opinion, but i really think Activision needs to get back in touch with it’s inner gamer. I cant wait to see them drop Call of Duty, you cant do business on a j-curve.

  • Cool

    So no charge to play? You need to think postive Activision.. Treyarch needs to think a better way to ban cheaters and people who take advantage of the PSN!..This is why I’m getting sick in tired of the same old crap in Call Of Duty
    If PSN was like XBL there wouldn’t be all this complaining about there cheating etc.. And don’t you dare cancel DJ HERO franchise its the only thing that’s keeping me busy right now!..Add more Trance etc..

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    It was not specifically stated in the call, but I’ve since found out that DJ Hero is on hiatus now too. No new DLC after this month and no games planned to come out this year. Sorry to confirm that bad news.

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    Well, hey, cheer up, because Guitar Hero is not actually “dead.” It’s just going to go on a long-deserved vacation.

    I really don’t know why “dead” is being used other than convenience — IPs don’t die, they just go into storage. Nintendo didn’t touch Kid Icarus for years, then, ta da, new game. They didn’t try to sell it in the meantime; they just didn’t have a good enough reason to bring a new game out until now. You Don’t Know Jack was dormant for several years, but here I am playing it this week on my 360. Street Fighter took several years off and then came back very strong. Twisted Metal was finally confirmed last E3, but it hadn’t had a new entry in several years.

    IPs come and go as the time seems right for them. Mix creative inspiration with factors like market trends or even pure nostalgia, and then you see people start saying “How about we look at this again?”

    You need that break to let your creative juices come back. As the jokey saying goes, “how can I miss you if you won’t go away?”

    So…no need to put GH up for sale, and no reason to think it’s gone forever. It’s gone for the immediate future, and I think we’ll survive while it rests.

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    Among the people who were let go were some of the VPs who interviewed me. I was rather stunned.

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    I want awesome games. I don’t want mediocre games, even if they sell. At that point, you’re selling potential and delivering disappointment.

    If you’re not aiming high, why shoot?

    Also, remember that a lot of chances were taken last year with new IPs and new games, and they didn’t pan out in terms of the investment made into them. That might be making them gunshy. http://oneofswords.com/2010/06/editorial-and-singularity-makes-four/

  • http://oneofswords.com/ Dan (OneOfSwords)

    Skepticism is healthy. But don’t forget to leave a little room for possible success, too. :)

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